Part 1. Environmental problems and scientific justification

Let us examine the general picture of what is happening to Earth’s Biosphere and the impact humanity is having on it. There are many scientific studies, but as a rule, no one pays attention to them! We are all well aware of the global destruction of ancient forests, the collapse of biological systems, and the pollution of oceans, seas, rivers, and lakes. But only a few people understand the true scale of the catastrophe.

In my Concept, I will present several scientific studies in order to bring the work of specialists together into a unified picture of the ongoing ecocide.

Justification one. Scientific research on the biotic regulation of climate by natural ecosystems.

Natural ecosystems — meaning ecosystems undisturbed by humans — are being destroyed all over the world. Fewer and fewer such places remain. There are many studies worldwide on the importance of protecting natural biological systems, but one of the most important and fundamental is the work of Russian scientists on the biotic regulation of climate by old-growth forests and natural ecosystems. The research was conducted by Anastassia Makarieva, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, and Victor Gorshkov, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences and Professor at the Department of Theoretical Physics of the B. P. Konstantinov Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The specialists are the authors of the concept of biotic regulation of climate by natural ecological systems. In 2006, the journal Ecology and Education published their scientific article titled “Rivers. Will they flow forever on Earth?”

In their work, the scientists explain the importance of preserving undisturbed ecosystems in order to maintain climatic balance and water cycles. In addition, they examine the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem stability. They warn that declining species abundance inevitably leads to the degradation of natural processes, including the water cycle. Human pressure causes rivers to disappear and creates abnormal droughts, which we are now witnessing around the world. In other words, scientists warned us about this decades ago!

The central discovery in the work of the Russian scientists is the forest biotic pump. In the study, the specialists explain the concept of a “biotic pump,” which maintains the terrestrial water cycle through undisturbed forest ecosystems. The destruction of the last ancient forests disrupts the biotic regulation of climate, causing water loss and desertification in continental interiors.

According to the scientists, preventing catastrophic consequences requires an urgent reassessment of humanity’s impact on natural biological systems. The remaining undisturbed forests must be preserved, and degraded areas must be restored.

This is necessary for the survival of all humanity!

But despite the scientific evidence, no meaningful changes are being made in this direction. Ancient forests continue to be destroyed, forest fires are increasing every year, and climate disasters are becoming a recurring and intensifying cycle.

Several decades have passed since the publication of the Russian scientists’ findings, and today we are witnessing precisely the consequences they warned us about: abnormal droughts, climate disasters, declining groundwater levels, and forest fires. We also see that this leads to even greater human intrusion into wildlife and even greater destruction of the last remaining ecosystems!

Justification two. The scientific study “Living Planet Report 2024” on the 73% decline in wildlife populations worldwide

Until recently, no large-scale scientific assessments of the global decline of wildlife populations existed. Such studies have only recently begun to be consolidated and published. In 2024, scientists from around the world working with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) released the Living Planet Report 2024.

Experts from around the world worked to produce a global assessment of the state of wildlife from 1970 to 2020, published in the Living Planet Report 2024. The analysis was based on data from more than 35,000 monitored populations representing 5,495 vertebrate species from every continent. The results showed that the average size of monitored vertebrate populations — mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians — declined by 73%.

Scientists identify the main causes as habitat destruction resulting from deforestation and agricultural expansion, as well as overexploitation through hunting and fishing, and climate change. Freshwater ecosystems have suffered the greatest impact from human activity, with monitored populations declining by 84% since the 1970s. The decline is even more severe in certain regions. Latin America, for example, has experienced the greatest loss of monitored wildlife populations since 1970 — approximately 95%.

An earlier report covered the period up to 2018. Its authors also stated that pressure on ecosystems continued to increase and that no meaningful positive change was taking place. In 2018, for example, humanity consumed 70% more natural resources than Earth was capable of regenerating within a single year. This trend continues to worsen at an alarming rate from year to year!

Seven years passed between the publication of WWF’s Living Planet Report 2018 and the Living Planet Report 2024, as calculated at the time this Concept was being prepared in 2024. During that period, the situation deteriorated further, while measures adopted by the international community to protect global biodiversity failed to affect the crisis. In only seven years, monitored wildlife populations declined by a further approximately 4%.

In reality, humanity is now fighting to preserve only a small fraction of the last viable wildlife populations. This is a catastrophe.

Justification three. The scientific study “Mutilation of the tree of life via mass extinction of animal genera” on the extinction of branches of the tree of life.

Scientists agree that Earth’s Biosphere is currently experiencing the sixth mass extinction in the planet’s history. But whereas previous mass extinctions were caused by global catastrophes, today the global catastrophe is us — human beings, humanity itself.

I would like to refer to another scientific study conducted by Stanford University and the National Autonomous University of Mexico. The study, titled “Mutilation of the tree of life via mass extinction of animal genera,” was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2023.

The scientists report that human activity is causing vertebrate species to disappear hundreds of times faster than they would under natural conditions. The analysis presented in the study shows that the crisis may deepen even further.

The authors found that the problem is not limited to the extinction of individual species. Entire genera — whole branches — are disappearing. The researchers describe this as the “mutilation of the tree of life.”

The scientists assessed extinction at the genus level and analyzed available databases from recent years. They studied 5,400 genera of terrestrial vertebrates, representing approximately 34,600 animal species. Their findings show that the extinction rate of vertebrate genera is 35 times higher than the average rate over the past million years. Over the past five centuries, human activity has triggered a surge in genus-level extinctions. The scientists called this “biological annihilation.”

When one species disappears, other species within the same family may sometimes partially assume its role in the biological system and continue performing necessary ecological functions. But humanity is destroying entire branches of genera, depriving ecosystems of essential components that no remaining species can replace. Restoring such ecosystems may require tens of millions of years of evolution.

The disappearance of even a single genus can trigger a chain reaction of disasters for humanity. And people cannot wait millions of years for evolution to rebuild the species lost from ecosystems. During that time, the habitat upon which all of us depend is collapsing.

Justification four. The scientific study “Mammal diversity will take millions of years to recover from the current biodiversity crisis” on the millions of years required to restore animal populations.

In 2018, a scientific study was published on mammal extinctions and the loss of evolutionary history. According to the researchers, more than 300 mammal species have already been completely lost, resulting in the destruction of more than 2.5 billion years of evolutionary history. It can only be restored through a new process of evolution, as animal lineages create a new history in the development of the planet.

This is the sixth mass extinction — and humans are its cause.

The researchers note that despite all existing conservation efforts, current extinction rates exceed the background rate that existed before human pressure on the Biosphere. Even if extinction rates were reduced to the level of current human pressure, restoring lost evolutionary diversity would still require millions of years.

The study was conducted through phylogenetic analysis, which measures the uniqueness of evolutionary lineages. The findings show that restoring mammal diversity would require at least 5–7 million years, even under the most favorable conditions for the formation of new species.

Some species, such as the aardvark, are the only living representatives of their entire orders, and their extinction would cause an even more devastating loss to global evolutionary history.

The authors emphasize that protecting species with unique evolutionary histories must be a priority. Urgent measures are needed to protect such species; otherwise, the consequences for ecosystems will be irreversible, and recovery will take millions of years.

Justification five. The scientific study “Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change” on the survival of populations inside and outside protected areas.

An international study led by Tel Aviv University showed that far more animals will disappear outside protected areas than within them. The scientists analyzed amphibians and reptiles inhabiting protected natural areas throughout the world. They were interested in the effects of climate change on protected territories.

The results demonstrate the global importance and decisive role of protected areas in preserving biodiversity. The researchers used scenarios involving climate disruption caused by human activity.

The conclusion is clear: under climate anomalies, more animals will survive within protected areas than in unprotected territories. To make this clearer, I would like to quote Professor Meiri, the lead author of the study:

“In this study, we collected distribution data for more than 14,000 species of amphibians and reptiles — about 70% of known species — to conduct a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of protected areas in the age of climate change using species distribution models. Our analysis showed that approximately 91% of the amphibian and reptile species we studied are protected to some extent within protected areas, and that this proportion will remain unchanged under future climate change. Moreover, species protected within reserves will lose a smaller proportion of their ranges inside protected areas than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of species found within reserves is expected to increase.”

“We project that more than 300 amphibian species and 500 reptile species included in our study will become extinct because of climate change in the coming decades, and probably hundreds of additional species for which we lacked sufficient data for modeling. Our study highlights the importance of protected areas in providing refuges for amphibians and reptiles despite climate change, and identifies regions where too few nature reserves exist to conserve biodiversity more effectively worldwide.”

“At the same time, it is important to remember that despite the relative optimism emerging from this new study, the models still predict extremely high rates of species extinction and habitat loss as a result of climate change. Protected areas do protect the animals living within them, but nothing is guaranteed.”

This scientific study demonstrates the importance of protecting and expanding protected areas in order to preserve wildlife throughout the world. This is especially important under the growing anthropogenic pressure of humanity.

Justification six. The scientific study “The synergy between protected area effectiveness and economic growth” on the ability of protected areas to support both biodiversity conservation and the economy.

According to scientists, protected natural areas can conserve biodiversity without harming local economies. This is probably one of the most controversial issues, because nature protection is always discussed in terms of supposed damage to the existing economy. In the study “The synergy between protected area effectiveness and economic growth,” researchers challenge the widespread belief that biodiversity protection restricts development.

In 60% of cases, economic conditions near protected areas were the same as or better than in areas without protection. At the same time, around half of all protected wildlife territories were able not only to conserve natural resources and biodiversity, but also to support economic growth.

The central objective of the authors was to emphasize the importance of finding solutions that make it possible to preserve biodiversity while developing the economy.

Justification seven. The scientific study “Advancing EDGE Zones to identify spatial conservation priorities of tetrapod evolutionary history” on the need to protect only 0.7% of the world’s land in order to save one third of unique animal species at risk of extinction.

Scientists note that protecting only 0.7% of the Earth’s land surface would make it possible to preserve one third of all evolutionarily unique and globally endangered tetrapod species.

The researchers identified 25 key “EDGE Zones” where evolutionarily unique species facing global extinction are highly concentrated. They found that almost all of these territories are under intense anthropogenic pressure.

At the same time, only 20% of the identified EDGE Zones are protected. In other words, only a fraction of the required 0.7% of the world’s protected land is currently being safeguarded. The scale of protected areas must be increased fivefold in order to protect even one third of endangered animal species.

Justification eight. The scientific study “Conservation Imperatives: securing the last unprotected terrestrial sites harboring irreplaceable biodiversity” on preventing the sixth mass extinction on Earth.

On June 25, 2024, one of the largest scientific studies on the importance of identifying and protecting wildlife refuges in order to prevent the sixth mass extinction on Earth was published. The researchers identified 16,825 sites that are currently unprotected but contain rare animal species, many of which are at risk of extinction. These sites occupy 1.22% of Earth’s land surface. The scientists state that protecting these zones is critically important for preventing the extinction of many animal species.

According to the researchers, protecting these territories would require approximately $146–228 billion with 90% probability. Almost all of this money would be spent on purchasing or leasing land for conservation and removing all human economic activity from those territories.

It is especially important that 38% of these sites are already located within 2.5 kilometers of existing protected areas. This means that the cost of protecting them could be significantly reduced.

The researchers emphasize that these areas must be designated urgently in order to prevent the sixth mass extinction. Without immediate and targeted action, many rare and unique species may disappear from the face of the Earth in the near future.

Justification nine. Half of the world’s plants are at risk of extinction.

According to global scientists and the 2023 report “State of the World’s Plants and Fungi 2023,” half of all plant species are at risk of extinction.

More than 200 scientists from 102 institutions in 30 countries worked on the study. More than 350,000 plants from across the planet were examined, including more than 100,000 species threatened with extinction.

This large-scale meta-analysis highlights the ineffectiveness of the existing protected-area system and reveals the true scale of the global ecological crisis.

According to the scientists:

1. In the near future, humanity risks losing up to half of all medicines because of plant extinctions, creating a critical threat to all human civilization.

2. Approximately 45% of all plant species on the planet are already at risk of complete extinction.

3. Plants that have not yet been described by science are also at risk: three out of four such species may disappear from the Earth in the near future. Scientists propose that newly discovered plants should automatically be classified as threatened until proven otherwise.

Every year, scientists around the world discover approximately 2,500 new plant species, not including fungi. According to mycologists, only 155,000 fungal species have been formally described, while the total number may reach 2.5 million.

At the current rate of study and classification, it could take up to 1,000 years to describe all fungal species.

We still know almost nothing about the complexity of the world around us, yet we have already managed to nearly destroy it.

Justification ten. One in three tree species worldwide is at risk of extinction.

In October 2024, an update to the IUCN Red List presented a global assessment of the state of the world’s trees. More than one thousand scientists from different parts of the world contributed to this enormous meta-analysis. According to the findings, one in three tree species worldwide is at risk of extinction.

In percentage terms, this is approximately 38% of the world’s tree species. Scientists assessed 166,061 species, of which 46,337 are threatened with extinction. This is more than twice the number of threatened bird, mammal, reptile, and amphibian species combined. It must be understood that every tree species is a center of interspecies relationships for all the interconnected plants and animals that depend on it, from the smallest organisms to the largest. The extinction of one tree species becomes a death sentence for all species that rely on it.

Justification eleven. Humanity has crossed six of the nine planetary boundaries.

In 2023, an updated assessment of the planetary boundaries framework was published by an international group of scientists. According to the new findings, humanity has already crossed six of the nine planetary boundaries, and Earth is now far outside the safe operating space for humanity.

Twenty-nine scientists worked on the study. According to their findings, two of the three remaining boundaries — ocean acidification and atmospheric aerosol loading — are approaching the threshold. Only stratospheric ozone depletion remains within safe limits.

The planetary boundaries framework is currently one of the most respected scientific assessments of the threshold values governing the critical processes that have maintained stable conditions for human life over the past 10,000 years and made modern civilization possible.

This scientific work provides another strong argument for the urgent establishment of Territories of Full Ecological Tranquility (TFET) throughout the world.

Justification twelve. Humanity has exceeded Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity

In 2026, a new scientific study titled “Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity” was published. The authors analyzed human population trends from 1800 to 2023 using United Nations demographic data and ecological models of population growth. The study showed that, beginning around 1962, continued growth in the human population was accompanied by a steady decline in the rate of growth. Eight years later, in 1970, humanity exceeded Earth’s biocapacity for the first time — consuming more resources and producing more waste each year than the planet’s natural systems were capable of regenerating and absorbing. Since that time, humanity has continuously lived by depleting Earth’s natural capital.

According to the authors’ calculations, based on the historical phase of sustainable human population development, an ecologically sustainable population under the current structure of consumption could be approximately 2.35–2.5 billion people. Today, more than eight billion people live on Earth. The authors also calculated that if the current demographic trajectory continues, the global population could reach approximately 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076. However, this would not represent a sustainable population level, but rather a maximum demographic threshold maintained through the continued depletion of natural resources. Climate and ecological crises may disrupt this trajectory much earlier.

Thus, this study provides scientific justification for our Concept and the need to establish Territories of Full Ecological Tranquility (TFET): Earth is no longer capable of sustainably supporting not only the future human population, but even the current one, without a radical transformation in the way humanity uses land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other natural resources. Human civilization has already exceeded the limits of the Biosphere and continues to exist by destroying the natural systems that sustain life itself.

Justification thirteen. Only the last large fragments of natural taiga remain in European Russia

As early as 2001, Russian wildlife conservation specialists published a study titled “Intact forest landscapes of Northern European Russia.” For the first time in Russia, scientists and conservation experts systematically analyzed general geographic maps and high-resolution satellite imagery in order to identify large taiga territories that had been minimally disturbed by industrial logging, roads, and other forms of human economic activity.

The study found that the total area of the remaining large intact forest landscapes in Northern European Russia amounted to 31.7 million hectares — only 13.8% of the forest zone of European Russia. By that time, no large intact forest landscapes remained in the southern regions of the forest zone. The last natural taiga forests survived mainly in the northernmost and most inaccessible areas that industrial development had not yet reached.

The authors emphasize that the taiga is not simply a collection of trees. It is an integrated natural complex that includes forests, wetlands, rivers, lakes, floodplain meadows, mountain tundra, and other interconnected ecosystems. Destruction is caused not only by direct forest clearing, but also by the fragmentation of natural territories by roads and industrial infrastructure, which severs the ecological connections between different parts of the landscape.

According to the researchers, at least three quarters of the forests in the taiga zone of European Russia could already be classified as secondary forests — forests that developed after severe human disturbance. Even where tree cover appears to have recovered, the natural structure of the forest ecosystem, habitat diversity, soil processes, and species composition may remain disrupted for many decades or even centuries.

It is particularly revealing that 87% of the remaining intact forest landscapes consisted mainly of low-productivity forests that were almost unsuitable for sustainable forestry. On 56% of these territories, timber reserves were so limited that industrial development could have proved economically unprofitable once the costs of road construction and timber transportation were taken into account. In practice, this meant destroying the last natural landscapes for the short-term extraction of resources that had accumulated over centuries and could not be restored within a comparable period.

The study also showed that removing these territories from industrial exploitation would not have caused a significant decline in overall timber-harvesting volumes. In Karelia, the Komi Republic, and the Arkhangelsk and Perm regions, the intact forest landscapes and their immediate surroundings accounted for less than 5% of regional timber harvesting. In other words, the last natural taiga forests were being destroyed not to secure an essential supply of resources, but to perpetuate an extensive model in which, after previously developed forests had been depleted, industry moved on to the next untouched territories.

The authors concluded that the identified forest landscapes should become part of the ecological framework of the North as territories capable of long-term self-maintenance. Until final decisions could be made, they recommended that these areas be immediately set aside, with industrial exploitation of natural resources and the development of transportation infrastructure prohibited.

This study provides direct scientific justification for the creation of Territories of Full Ecological Tranquility (TFET). Protection must extend not to isolated forest parcels or arbitrary administrative categories, but to large, continuous natural complexes together with their wetlands, rivers, lakes, soils, and all internal ecological connections.