How many tigers were there in Russia, and how many are there now? Are there any real scientific estimates?

There is a huge amount of unreliable information about tigers in the wild right now. A powerful hunting lobby that promotes, through government, the shooting of Red Book–listed protected animals is actively interested in “shooting tigers.” And so we hear various kinds of “experts” on TV talking about a growing tiger population, claiming there is supposedly not enough space for them in the wild, and that they are coming to eat people because they no longer fit in the taiga.

I think this needs to be clarified. I mean the situation around the manipulation of tiger population figures specifically in Russia!

In the 1900s, it was estimated that there were over 100,000 tigers in the wild worldwide. This is a rounded figure, because there were no precise counts back then; data were mostly gathered by experts from preserved surveys among residents of different regions of the world—who saw tigers, where, and how many. In some places the estimates came from hunting operators, in others from people living in settlements.

At that same time—precisely in that period—there was global expansion into remote ecosystems, and people were slaughtering tigers en masse! Completely deliberately: trophy hunting for the wealthy, skins made into rugs, and “potions” brewed from organs in attempts to live forever.

In some places, numbers were driven down to zero—three subspecies were wiped off the face of the Earth completely. Those that survived—at one point their populations collapsed to truly critical levels, but after the 2000s they were somewhat restored through semi-captive breeding and subsequent releases into the wild. And so, all of this “restoration” that people talk about is, as of today, the population of ALL TIGERS ON THE PLANET, which does not exceed 4,000 individuals.

So again: expert estimates of about 100,000 tigers worldwide in the 1900s, and now a confirmed number of about 4,000 tigers in the wild across the entire planet. Minus 96% of the total population.

But in our country, everything is ambiguous. Let’s try to explain.

In Russia, our Siberian (Amur) tiger population is around 750 individuals—and even they supposedly don’t have enough space to live and feed! Conflicts are increasing, they come out to people, and there are casualties on both sides. Moreover, the figure of 750 individuals has been voiced for many years now, and these are only the official data; I believe the number is deliberately inflated. But there is no precise proof—only my personal assessment—so we will rely on the official data: 750 tigers for the entire country.

Also, specifically for our regions (Russia), some sources claim that tiger populations were so exterminated in the last century that numbers crashed to only 25–30 individuals by the 1930s. This is exactly what various “experts”—pushed forward by the hunting lobby in government—lean on to justify the need to legalize shooting tigers. They say something like: “Look, there were 25 tigers, and we saved them, and now the population has grown to 750! But there isn’t enough taiga for them, they don’t fit—so it’s important to urgently allow shooting.”

Here is what I disagree with: the horizons of the early last century are, first of all, un освоенные territories—vast expanses of the Russian Taiga. It was unrealistic to count tigers back then; estimates were mainly based on tracks NEAR settlements. And the predator itself is very cautious and, under normal conditions, AVOIDS humans by any means! Today, we essentially have a synanthropic population, artificially supported, but earlier predatory animals retreated deep into the taiga. There was a food base and space for a calm life—until people began pushing farther and farther in!

I studied researchers’ data for mountainous terrain: the tiger’s range extended very widely; the striped predator went into the mountain ranges of the Far East, even as far as Transbaikalia and Yakutia; tiger routes went into the northern provinces of China and the Korean Peninsula. For example, there is a very good scientific work, “A SURVEY OF AMUR (SIBERIAN) TIGERS IN THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST, 2004-2005”—a major study—in which specialists provide data that before the 1940s there were no reliable estimates for tigers at all. Only in the early 1940s did the first field studies begin to appear.

The study is very good; it was conducted using a FIELD-TEST method—such work is rarely done now. Therefore, I would like to provide a few quotes from this study.

“Most forest tracts within tiger range have been subjected to logging. There is evidence that ungulate numbers have declined throughout the tiger’s range over the last 10 years, leading to an apparent imbalance between populations of key prey species and the tiger itself. In the early 1990s, poaching increased dramatically, largely as a result of new opportunities to sell tiger bones. Products from tigers, believed to possess powerful medicinal properties, are still sold in most countries of East Asia”.

“Over the last decade, changes in logging practices, increasing illegal logging, new factors encouraging the exploitation of natural resources to increase economic productivity, and new incentives for poaching have affected tiger habitat, their prey, and directly the tiger population itself.

In addition, there is the issue of population size. Population geneticists warn that small populations are at risk of extinction for various reasons related to low genetic variability. The question of what constitutes a ‘viable’ population remains a subject of debate; however, it is clear that populations with fewer than 1,000 breeding individuals are certainly at risk”.

The study is large and interesting; I read it in full. One could say that in 2004–2005 scientists conducted the first proper monitoring of tigers and used a modern, understandable methodology. A good approach! But at the same time, surveys are still conducted among hunting operators, which, of course, defines an inherently BIASED position. Put simply: today, the killing of tigers is supported by a huge number of hunters, and it is the hunting lobby in government that is pushing for it! Accordingly, this makes it possible to manipulate numbers at the level of controlled hunting grounds in Siberian and Far Eastern regions.

For example, scientists collected data from hunting enterprises, and those data could have been deliberately overstated. Surveys were also conducted among hunters who spend the winter at hunting bases—and there, too, numbers can be skillfully manipulated! In fact, hearing things personally and receiving a huge number of letters with an aggressive stance on tigers from the regions, I can imagine how biased it is to rely on hunters’ data.

And now imagine how to count tigers in the Siberian and Far Eastern taiga at the beginning of the last century—over a vast area—trying to estimate an extremely cautious, hidden predatory species. In those years there was neither proper logistics nor technology (camera traps, genetics, GPS collars, and everything else), nor even enough people in remote regions.

Therefore, the first census in the 1940s was also conducted exclusively through questionnaires for hunters, local residents, and inspectors. Essentially: “Have you seen tigers near dwellings?”

This is methodological substitution, not a count of real abundance.

Therefore, the global figure of 100,000 individuals (tigers) is an approximate count of those that were visible near settlements! I believe that in reality there were far more tigers, and they lived normally in the wild. Back then they were “killed by the trainload,” transported to Asian countries for traditional medicine—no one tracked or controlled it!

But look at one more important point. Global scientists estimate the number of tigers in the world in the 1900s at around 100,000 individuals. Our officials-bureaucrats, through controlled organizations, assert figures of 300–400 tigers in those years in Russia and a drop to 25–30 individuals by the 1930s (when, as we have established, it was impossible to count the number of tigers).

Why do the numbers diverge so much, given that the expanses of un освоенные wild nature in Siberia and the Far East in those years were among the largest on the planet?

Here I would like to recall forest fires, simply to understand how assessments work—how distorted data can be!

In 2019–2020, Australia experienced anomalous forest fires; according to official government data, more than 24 million hectares of forest burned. The confirmed model-based estimate is that up to 1 billion living creatures died in the fires—mammals, birds, reptiles—WITHOUT accounting for many other groups like insects, and so on. The data are confirmed by the state, while independent estimates report losses UP TO 3 BILLION.

In 2021, similarly anomalous fires occurred in Russia; at that time we demanded that government officials introduce a moratorium on sport hunting. Roughly as much forest burned as in Australia the year before! But in official replies we received only a brush-off stating that “not a single wild animal was harmed in the forest fires.” This despite the fact that people in the regions personally carried out the corpses of burned animals from the taiga!

That’s it. Now imagine the scale of the “numbers game.” And apply it to the situation with tigers!

Thus, today we see synanthropic tiger populations (Russia, India, and a few other countries in isolated pockets) that live around settlements and are maintained artificially. We see the destruction of all terrestrial ecosystems, the development of previously undeveloped LAST refuges of wild nature, and the global extinction of all species on the planet (the abundance of all animals has decreased by 73% over the last 50 years).

Therefore, when various pseudo-experts say that the tiger population has increased and they no longer fit in the wild— in my view this is deliberate lying, operating with distorted data and a complete misunderstanding of biological processes. As well as a misunderstanding of environmental problems.

• I recommend reading a separate piece about the decline of tiger numbers worldwide and the reasons for their extermination: https://pavel-pashkov.com/articles/en/extinction-of-tigers 

© PAVEL PASHKOV