Scientists said that there are more boreal forests now: is that really the case?

Several people have written to me recently. They say that those who justify the destruction of ancient forests for profit have begun actively citing certain scientific studies, claiming that scientists say there are only more forests now. As it turned out, a lot of state-dependent media repeat this rhetoric, and in some local replies from officials, statements have begun to appear: “you are wrong; forests are actually increasing.”

So is our Russian Taiga expanding and there are no problems? Or is someone openly hiding behind distorted data to justify the destruction of ancient forests?

Let’s figure it out.

There are indeed scientific observations today, based on satellite maps, that confirm a shift of boreal forest growth toward the Arctic zone. Such work became possible due to the availability of large volumes of data. Scientists decided to analyze the biome of northern forests from 1985 to 2020 in order to track the northward shift of forest cover. Specialists from NASA also took part in this work.

The work was conducted on the basis of satellite observations; scientists compiled annual maps of tree cover and then created a temporal breakdown over a 36-year period. The analysis showed that boreal forests increased in size (expanded) by 0.844 million km² and also shifted north by 0.29° of mean latitude.

I wrote about this in my earlier work when I spoke about the “carbon agenda.” The living organism of the forest protects itself and thereby protects us all—humanity. Look: it is known that an old-growth forest absorbs and stores carbon, preventing it from being released outward. This is important for maintaining the life of the forest itself. And scientists in their earlier work—work that officials later cited when promoting the “carbon agenda” (taxes on carbon emissions)—spoke about permafrost thaw and the release of carbon in the Arctic zone. At the same time, they did not account for the fact that if permafrost is thawing, then the living organism of the forest is also shifting into these territories, preventing carbon emissions. In essence, the forest protects itself by maintaining the necessary state of the surrounding environment.

The scientists also spoke about this in the new work on the growth of boreal forests, demonstrating the ability of new forests to act as a carbon sink. Young boreal forests (up to 36 years old) already contain a huge amount of carbon and are capable of absorbing more.

So, the scientific paper itself is recent; it was published in 2026. It is titled “The northward shift of boreal tree cover confirmed by satellite data.”

On closer examination of the data provided by the specialists, I see that all the growth occurred in areas along the tundra boundary. This is roughly 64° to 68° north latitude—that is, zones of cooling tundra where young trees were able to establish. One could say that the “fringe” of the taiga belt is shifting slightly farther north.

This does not mean the revival of old forests, but simply the spread of young stands into the tundra. Even the authors themselves emphasize that the new area is occupied by regeneration up to about 35 years old, while century-old forest tracts in the center of the taiga are being rapidly destroyed by humans. In simple terms: while a formal increase in cover is being recorded, at the same time the core taiga is disappearing. And this new fact does not solve that problem in any way.

Now further. According to scientific data, over the last 20 years the world has lost around 80 million hectares of boreal forests due to forest fires alone. The size of the U.S. state of Texas—this accounts for about 70% of all global tree-cover loss from fire. From year to year the situation is more critical; for example, annual forest losses from fires in Russia and Canada are estimated at 1–3 million hectares per year, while each severe fire season can take tens of millions of hectares. For instance, in 2021 the extent of losses in the boreal zone increased by 29% at once.

Large-scale logging and land degradation deliver an additional blow to boreal forests. Earlier, global experts estimated that in Russia alone about 20,000 km² of natural forests are cut annually (an area comparable to Israel). And the area of forests burned exceeds the area cut by roughly two to three times.

According to research by Global Forest Watch under the World Resources Institute initiative, it is known that from 2001 to 2021 Russia alone lost about 53 million hectares of tree cover due to fires.

If we convert all this into rough figures, it comes out like this: the reported increase of about +0.844 million km² over 35 years is roughly equal to the total losses of about 0.8 million km² over 20 years from fire alone, without taking into account large-scale logging and overall ecosystem degradation. And these gains reported in the new study do not affect valuable old-growth areas and refugia—shelters for wildlife.

A few more numbers: the expansion of forests has been reported since 1985—that is, it has been going on for a long time. But the losses were assessed from 2001 to 2021. Thus, given baseline fire rates, over 35 years (1985–2020) forests were lost in the same way by about 1.4 million km²—almost twice the stated increase.

It is also very important to emphasize, from the same scientific study, that the data reflect the total area of trees, including even the smallest young growth. It turns out that there are very, very few fully formed forests.

I can say that the new scientific work mainly confirms the following: our northern forests, the mighty taiga, are a very strong organism capable of changing, adapting, and protecting not only itself but also all of us—people. And that we, people, do not understand the deep processes of the living organism of the Forest, its interconnectedness, and its global role in sustaining life on Earth.

There is no “continuous growth” of forests—new trees are mainly occupying former tundra lands, while old-growth tracts in the taiga zone are being irreversibly destroyed. That is, young forests growing in the tundra do not replace the millennia-old ecosystems of the Russian Taiga that have been lost. The taiga can be saved only by recognizing the real scale of its destruction and acting collectively, together, to protect it, rather than being satisfied with the illusion of “growing forests.”

© PAVEL PASHKOV