Continental drying: the planet has entered a phase of “super-droughts” with a global threat to all life

It's all quite simple: all of us, people, humanity as a whole, over the past 22 years have lost a significant portion of fresh water.

Analysis of satellite observation data conducted from 2002 to 2024 revealed a truly gigantic decline in groundwater levels and depletion of freshwater reserves on all continents. The only exceptions are the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica.

The main question is this:

At catastrophic rates (at the speed of an explosion, if we speak in terms of geological changes on the planet), the continents are losing fresh water available for human use.

I want to emphasize from the very beginning for the correct understanding:

it is specifically the fresh water available for human use that is being lost.

I will highlight the most important facts right away.

First: the unobvious and invisible nature of water loss.

Neither ordinary citizens nor government authorities — no one actually sees the problem!

See for yourself why this happens — it turned out that the largest contribution (68%) to the loss of land water reserves comes from groundwater.

The distribution is as follows:

• 68% loss of groundwater horizons;
• 18% loss of surface waters;
• 9% loss of soil moisture (soil drying);
• 5% reduction of spring meltwater.

That means only about one third of the water loss is noticeable — two thirds of this process occur invisibly, because underground aquifers are being depleted, and we do not see it.

Second: continental drying is uneven.

Satellite images over 22 years have shown four "super-droughts" drying out four regions of the planet.

All these catastrophic dehydration zones are located within the continents of the Northern Hemisphere:

The Southwest of North America and Central America — here, in the near future, the main agricultural regions of the United States will be left without water. As well as megacities such as Los Angeles, Mexico City, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.

Alaska and Northern Canada — mountain glaciers are melting here, permafrost is disappearing, and the major agro-industrial regions of British Columbia and Saskatchewan are drying out.

Northern Russia — snow and permafrost are melting in the high latitudes. But there is no risk for agriculture. These are not agrarian regions of our country.

A giant belt stretching from Europe and North Africa through the entire Middle East to northwestern India and the North China Plain. It is clear that here the damage to human civilization is maximal. These are the largest agricultural regions of the planet, including our Black Sea region. And at the same time these are the most densely populated regions with the largest megacities of the world — from Paris in Europe and Dubai on the Arabian Peninsula to the megacities of India, China, and Southeast Asia.

What comes next — can it be assessed? Yes, it can. Continental drying will continue. This is a trend, part of the global process.

Right now we see that over the past 22 years almost 6 billion people in 101 countries of the world are losing access to fresh water.

These territories are home to 75% of the planet’s population.

Such are the numbers.

The study is large-scale and trustworthy. The authors are scientific groups from FLAME University (India), Arizona State University (USA), and California Institute of Technology (USA). The conclusions of the meta-analysis are based on the study of NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO data from April 2002 to April 2024.

Let us look further and reflect.

Here we have objective scientific data.

Here we have an opportunity to grasp the picture as a whole. To see in dynamics what is happening with our planet Earth. And…

…and no one cares!

I recently wrote in one of my materials that I am frightened when I see such (vital for everyone, in my opinion!) studies having, for example, 10 thousand views. Or even fewer.

Now the Earth’s population is more than 8 billion 200 million. This means that the originals of such scientific works are read by about one-thousandth of one percent of people. The remaining 99.999% of the planet’s inhabitants do not understand this, do not know about it, or are not interested in such issues.

That is, I now see: here is clear scientific proof that the Territories of Full Ecological Tranquility (TFET) should have been implemented at the international level yesterday. But leading world politicians do not discuss these issues. And, you know, I even suspect that they may not be aware of it.

Now let us look at the legislative changes that are being pushed through by influence groups of officials and deputies in the interests of private commercial groups.

We are told that this is done “in the interests of all working people.”

We are told that this is done “in the interests of the country’s development.”

In reality, everything is done for the enrichment of specific individuals. With specific surnames. Hidden, however, behind offshore structures, legal entity names, and financial groups. And not only we, but often even law enforcement agencies cannot establish in whose interests this is done exactly. And “state interests” are only used as a cover.

In fact, there are not so many people in power who sincerely adhere to “state interests.” And it is precisely these people who support us! “State interests” or, to put it a little differently, “imperial interests” are always strategic interests. They are the interests of the future. So that the country and the state exist and develop in decades to come.

Such people, let us say, “imperialists” or “statists,” exist in power. And they support us. Because it is obvious and lies on the surface that preserving the taiga is directly the preservation of the future of the country and the state. Preserving wildlife is the preservation of the future of the country and the state.

But state power is an enormous and complex system. Consisting of many influential groups. Often not just with different but with opposing interests. The question “how will this affect our country in 20 or 50 years” is asked by far from everyone.

Look, here is the real context of such questions about the future:

— 68% of groundwater has been lost invisibly to us over the past 22 years;

— one of the regions of such catastrophic but invisible drying is the Black Sea region, the agricultural south of our country.

And now, in this context, the question of the Lago-Naki Plateau in the Caucasus:

• The rivers Belaya, Kurdzhips, and Tsitsa originate from the plateau.
• Extensive underground karst formations of the plateau directly indicate that the plateau also feeds extensive underground aquifers with moisture.
• How will the construction of a huge ski resort with roads and infrastructure, as well as its further exploitation, affect the hydrology of the vast region? What will happen in 20 years? In 50 years? Or were no questions asked at all other than about profits for the coming years?
• How will the increase in dust due to the commercial exploitation of new ski resorts affect the reflectivity of the Caucasus glaciers, and, as a consequence, how much faster will the glaciers melt?

Many very uncomfortable questions, to which not only are there no answers — these questions are not even being asked! We are almost the only ones who actually raise such questions!

Questions about Lake Baikal.

Questions about the actual reduction of the protection status of nature reserves.

Questions about large-scale economic exploitation of vulnerable mountain ecosystems and their transformation into global tourist clusters.

I try not to speak about such political issues. But in this context, when we look at the planet as a whole, so much depends on our country.

The Russian Empire —

The Soviet Union —

and today’s Russia — this is one country.

Someone must ask the questions: what will happen to our country in 20 years? In 50 years?

What will happen in 50 years if we now destroy mountain ecosystems at river sources in just a decade for tourism profits?

How fast will the dehydration of the Altai Mountains proceed under the increasing anthropogenic pressure of the tourism industry?

Who, and how, is supposed to ask such questions at all?

© PAVEL PASHKOV