Baikal has officially been sold: soon millions of Chinese tourists will flood in to “develop” the ancient lake.

After many years of struggle for Lake Baikal, unfortunately, the deputies managed to push through a bill that can lead to the destruction of Baikal’s unique ecosystem. The amendments were approved in the second and third readings on 9 December 2025 and will enter into force as early as 1 March 2026. 323 deputies voted in favour of the law and 71 against, despite protests from scientists, environmentalists, local residents and the entire civil society of the country.

Let us, Allies, carefully analyse what has actually happened, why it is dangerous for wildlife and whether there is any way to influence the problem further!

THREAT TO BAIKAL

The adopted bill radically weakens environmental protection restrictions on the Baikal natural territory. A unique refuge of wildlife, which allowed animals and plants to hide from humans, will now be “developed”.

I will list only the main threats to the ecosystem that the adopted law allows:

1 — Clear-cut logging in the central ecological zone of Baikal.

For the first time, the bill lifts the ban on clear-cutting: formally it is permitted to cut forest only for “sanitary purposes”, but it is precisely under the cover of “sanitary logging” that our taiga in other regions of the country has been brutally destroyed for many years already! Moreover, right here, not far from Baikal, forests have been destroyed for years, for example in the Irkutsk region. Chains of officials were uncovered who, together with logging groups, were engaged in destroying wildlife! All of this was justified as “sanitary felling”.

And now they are being directly let onto the shores of Baikal. Under the pretext of “dead” forest, mass logging of valuable forests can take place. In addition, clear-cutting requires the construction of roads and a huge amount of heavy machinery; all this will lead to the destruction of the soil cover, which will provoke soil erosion on the slopes. The Baikal forests are a powerful regulator of the hydrological regime of the lake and rivers: they accumulate groundwater and retain moisture in the soils. Their destruction threatens the shallowing of rivers and of Baikal itself. The biotic regulation of the climate is also disturbed – the so-called “biotic pump”, thanks to which the taiga forests attract precipitation and maintain the region’s water balance.

2 — Transfer of protected lands for large-scale construction.

The bill now allows land to be taken out of the protected area for the construction of extensive infrastructure. This is precisely the economic development of once untouched corners of wildlife! It is permitted to build roads, highways, power lines, heat supply facilities, water intakes and sewage systems, as well as artificial hydraulic structures. Naturally, the purpose of any infrastructure is the further expansion of human presence in the wild, the actual seizure of a refuge-refugium.

Under the guise of meeting the needs of the population in two special economic zones (SEZ) around Baikal, massive construction will invade nature. The construction of roads and communications will fragment virgin forests, disrupt animal migration routes and the integrity of ecosystems. Heavy machinery and development will lead to soil degradation, and discharges from new facilities will intensify pollution of the lake’s waters with human waste.

I will quote Sergei Mironov, head of the “A Just Russia” faction:

“The amendments allow much more than infrastructure for residents. We are talking about large-scale commercial construction of tourist infrastructure. About unprecedented construction that can break a fragile ecosystem. The problems of citizens should be solved in a targeted way, but by no means by destroying a unique natural jewel.”

3 — Removal of protected status from coastal lands to distribute them into private hands.

The new law directly opens the way to privatizing the Baikal coast. A hidden provision has appeared in the regulations on stripping the protected status from a number of territories along the water’s edge of the lake. In particular, it is permitted to transfer lands of the forest fund into the category of lands of settlements if, in fact, settlements are already located there – until the end of 2030, they can be officially formalized as settlements regardless of their previous forest status.

Practically the entire shoreline may pass into the ownership of business structures: elite hotels, tourist bases and cottages of the rich. Wild animals will lose access to water and feeding grounds along the shore, and the ecosystems of coastal wetlands and small lakes will be destroyed.

I will note that State Duma deputy Vyacheslav Fetisov recently stated publicly that he intends to demand verification of the legality of 14,500 (!) land plots that are in private ownership on specially protected Baikal territories.

So that you understand the problem: this is not normal. Someone privatized or illegally acquired these plots, and now, by means of the new law, is trying to retrospectively remove responsibility from themselves and quickly legalize what was stolen.

4 — Mass tourism on Baikal.

The law regulates the activities of two SEZs operating on Baikal – “Baikalskaya Gavan’” (“Baikal Harbour”, Buryatia, 3600 ha) and “Vorota Baykala” (“Gates of Baikal”, Irkutsk region, 768 ha). Formally, a ban has been introduced on the construction of housing within the boundaries of SEZs in the central ecological zone and a moratorium on the creation of new SEZs. However, at the same time the amendments directly allow the construction on SEZ territory of facilities for temporary accommodation of tourists, catering facilities and service points. That is, mass construction of large tourist clusters on the shores of Baikal for millions of tourists is beginning!

Accordingly, technogenic pressure will begin – forest will be cut down for the tourist clusters, communications will be laid, the forest will be cut up with highways, and the amount of waste and hazardous discharges into Baikal will grow.

THE “CONTROL” COMMISSION

After the adoption of the bill, officials created a special Commission for the Protection of Lake Baikal, which will decide where forest can be cut and which lands can be seized for construction. This is pure window dressing – the commission will consist only of officials (deputies, senators, representatives of presidential administrations, regional heads and so on). Moreover, formally, opinions of the RAS (Russian Academy of Sciences) will be required for the “development” of Baikal, but the Academy has long been regulated and controlled by the bureaucratic apparatus. Thus, it is permitted for the commission to make decisions in a closed, remote format.

In fact, we see the creation of a closed system of “backroom deals” between officials and officials. They will be the ones to decide how to carve up our Baikal.

Thus, the current bill on the destruction of Baikal is in fact a package sale of the most unique natural refuge of wildlife, disguised as noble aims. Under the cover of protecting people from forest fires, repairing roads and developing utilities, norms for large-scale economic activity have been introduced!

“CHINESE DEALS”

One of the main goals in “developing” Baikal is a purely self-serving interest – short-term profit from millions of Chinese and Indian tourists. The first wave will consist primarily of tourists from the Middle Kingdom!

Literally just before the adoption of the bill, on 1 December 2025, a decree on visa-free travel for citizens of China was signed. And already on 9 December the bill on the development of Baikal was rapidly adopted by officials, immediately in the second and third readings!

At the same time, Russian regions began competing for the future flow from the Middle Kingdom. In Buryatia and the Irkutsk region, new routes and tour products are being urgently developed specifically for Chinese guests. The Minister of Tourism of Buryatia, Aldar Dorzhiev, presented several new routes – for example, “On the Great Tea Road” and “Sacred Baikal and the Path of Su Wu” – expecting that “the route will be popular among Chinese travel companies”. Since October 2025, a direct charter flight Ulan-Ude – Hainan has been operating, and the authorities are seeking to launch a regular flight to Beijing: “With the abolition of the visa regime we need new flights. I think a flight to Beijing will appear at the beginning of the new year,” Dorzhiev said. All this is being done in anticipation of a huge influx: officials openly speak of millions of expected tourists from the PRC.

The authorities are also negotiating discounts on air travel for Chinese tourists in order to attract as many people as possible! But an even greater interest lies in transferring lands for tourist clusters directly to Chinese business, which will in fact control the protected Baikal in the future.

Below I want to present quotes from responsible officials, without unnecessary commentary. You will understand what this is about!

“The cancellation of the visa regime will definitely make it possible to increase the number of trips… the classic destinations are Moscow, Saint Petersburg… Baikal – these are points of attraction for Chinese tourists” — Dmitry Gorin, Vice President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry.

“We believe the route (‘Sacred Baikal’) will be popular among Chinese travel companies” — Aldar Dorzhiev, Minister of Tourism of Buryatia.

“Negotiations are underway with Chinese air carriers to… reduce the cost of flights” — Evgeniya Naydenova, Head of the Agency for Tourism of the Irkutsk Region.

“Work is simultaneously underway to create special tour products for tourists from India, who actively visited the Baikal region before the pandemic” — Evgeniya Naydenova, Agency for Tourism of the Irkutsk Region.

“Russia expects that already next year more than 2 million Chinese tourists will visit us” — Nikita Kondratyev, Director of the Department of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

“Russia is setting an ambitious goal of increasing the tourist flow from China to 5.5 million people by 2030” — press release of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

“The implementation of the ‘Five Seas and Lake Baikal’ project will increase the tourist flow to Buryatia by about 2 million people a year” — Dmitry Chernyshenko, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.

“In the future, the flow of tourists from the PRC to Baikal should reach one million people a year” — Wei Xiaoan, head of the delegation of the China Tourism Association (statement at a meeting with the governor of the Irkutsk region).

“The Chinese side called Baikal ‘the most promising destination’ and a ‘super resource’ for its travellers” — from materials of the meeting with the PRC delegation.

As we can see, the plans are completely explicit. The Russian authorities and entrepreneurs are counting on turning Baikal into a tourist Mecca for the Chinese and Indians. Agreements on the exchange of tourists have already been reached: since 2024, a mutual visa-free group exchange with China has been in effect, and similar simplification with India is expected soon. The number of flights from China is increasing, new hotels and resorts are being built. For example, in Buryatia, within the framework of the SEZ “Baikalskaya Gavan’”, the all-season resort “Magic Baikal” is being built – 7 investors are constructing hotels, yacht clubs, spa centres, planning 5,667 new hotel rooms to receive an avalanche of guests. It is expected that the capacity of the resorts will grow many times over, and the tourist flow to Baikal will increase annually by 10–25% thanks to the Chinese.

Thus, the adopted law easing logging and construction is the foundation on which a “tourist Babylon” will be erected on Baikal. The coincidence is striking: as soon as the authorities pushed through the amendments, the “Five Seas and Lake Baikal” project immediately began to be implemented, designed to turn Baikal into a centre of attraction for millions of tourists. Within this federal project, 77 thousand new hotel rooms are to be created across the country, and a significant part of them will be on Baikal.

I will quote the defenders of Baikal, our Allies:

“The expansion of economic activity on Baikal will benefit the company ‘Baikal Group’, whose beneficiaries are Oleg Deripaska and a group of anonymous Chinese investors.”

IS TOURISM REALLY THAT DANGEROUS?

Now about tourism. A great many people wrote to me along the lines of “Well, Pavel, at least they’re not building industrial enterprises, that’s something; tourism is not so bad for nature, is it?”.

So – on a reasonable scale tourism can be harmless, but we are now talking about mass tourism, which will inevitably become destructive for wildlife. Especially in such a fragile ecosystem as that of Baikal.

In the 2010s, when the flow from China grew rapidly (from 158 thousand tourists in 2010 to 1.5 million in 2017), local residents were already sounding the alarm. Winter Baikal was literally occupied by tourists from the PRC – up to 90% of lake visitors in the winter of 2016/17 were Chinese. On peak dates during the Chinese New Year, hotels on Olkhon Island were filled exclusively with citizens of the PRC, and Russian tourists could not find places. Baikal’s infrastructure could not cope: there was a shortage of accommodation, growing mountains of garbage and sewage polluting the water. Chinese tour groups often operated autonomously, staying in Chinese hotels and using Chinese services, leaving almost no money in the local economy, but leaving behind tons of waste.

Now the authorities plan to increase these flows many times over. First of all, to receive millions of tourists, new highways will be laid around Baikal, power lines and pipelines will be built. Then large-scale construction will follow. All this means forest clearing and the breaking up of continuous natural areas into fragments. All animals will suffer, from Baikal seals to brown bears – they simply will have nowhere to hide from humans. Ancient forests will be cut by road clearings, the natural regulation of the region’s unique microclimate will be disrupted. The lake will begin to shallow, the climate will change, and the degradation of all ecosystems will begin.

The risk of fires will increase many times over. Forest fires, as is known, lead to soil erosion – ash and landslides will be washed into the lake, worsening water quality and harming fish spawning grounds. Mass tourism inevitably generates mountains of garbage and sewage. Even now Baikal suffers from blooms of the toxic alga Spirogyra, which is linked to the influx of tourists and the lack of modern sewage treatment. If dozens of new hotels and campsites appear on the shores, problems with wastewater treatment will worsen and algal blooms will become a permanent disaster. Garbage removal in hard-to-reach areas will also be a difficult task – part of the waste will be burnt or buried nearby, polluting the soil and air.

Where taiga now descends to crystal clear water, cottage settlements will spring up and the beaches will be filled with noisy crowds of tourists. Animals – from Baikal seals to migratory birds – will lose quiet habitats and breeding grounds. Anthropogenic pressure on all natural communities of the Baikal region will increase sharply.

I have studied for many years the tragic experience of other protected areas in the world where, in exactly the same way, the protection status was lowered and short-term profit was squeezed out. ALL SUCH TERRITORIES WERE DESTROYED!

TOURISM IS ONLY THE BEGINNING.

It is important to understand that the authorization of mass tourism is only the first stage of the “development” of Baikal. After a basic federal law that breaks a breach in the protection regime has been adopted, a chain reaction will follow. Once resorts and roads begin to be built, it will be impossible to stop the further influx of business and people. Appetites will grow, and no one will be able to stop it any more! Until every last “bone” of wildlife has been picked clean.

The authors of the bill clearly understand this. It is no coincidence that their main task was to remove precisely the federal protection – that very Law “On the Protection of Lake Baikal” of 1999, which for a long time was considered the “ecological constitution” of Baikal. Now that lobbyist-driven amendments have been introduced into this law, the next steps may be by-laws, orders of regional governments, new amendments to the Forest Code and other regulations. The text already contains the intention to remove the concept of “clear-cutting” from legislation altogether.

IT MUST BE UNDERSTOOD THAT THE FEDERAL LAW WAS “BROKEN THROUGH” ONLY AS A BEGINNING – NEXT THEY WILL DESTROY THE FRAMEWORK OF PROTECTED STATUS WITH DEPARTMENTAL AND REGIONAL ACTS.

As soon as the Baikal shores are transferred into private ownership and commercial facilities appear there, it will be much easier to remove the protection of these lands. Today they say – only tourist bases and roads; tomorrow they may declare: we need to provide these tourist bases with communication, energy, so let us allow, say, a pipeline to be laid or a processing plant to be opened “for the needs of tourists”. Then, before you know it, plans will surface to build a plant somewhere on the outskirts of the lake (under the pretext, for example, of bottling water for export – such ideas have already been voiced earlier).

Will anyone be able to stop this later? Of course not. Remember how the whole country opposed the construction of a Chinese water bottling plant on Baikal a few years ago. Well, those plans haven’t gone anywhere – it’s just that now it will be even easier to put them into practice.

Even the declared restrictions can be eroded. For example, the requirement for a positive opinion from the RAS is a good thing, but what prevents the authorities over time from replacing inconvenient experts with more loyal ones? Or simply ignoring their opinions: it is enough to recall that three scientific councils of the RAS at once, the Limnological Institute of the SB RAS, as well as shamans, the Buddhist community and the Russian Orthodox Church all opposed the bill, but their voice was not heard. Academics wrote to the president about the anti-environmental nature of the amendments – and what then? In the end, the alarm was quietly “silenced” after behind-the-scenes adjustments. The commission will be able to make decisions remotely, without discussion – which means publicity will be minimal.

I am publishing the document – this is an open appeal by 87 LEADING SCIENTISTS OF RUSSIA to the President of Russia on the inadmissibility of adopting the bill. Download it and study it without fail.

File Download the appeal by the scientists 1 MB

The social factor of irreversibility must also be borne in mind. Investment will pour into the Baikal regions and money will flow. New jobs will appear, and local residents – some voluntarily, some under pressure – will be drawn into the new economic model. When thousands of people are employed in the tourism industry and construction, it will not be in their interests to stop these processes. A powerful local pro-business coalition will emerge, which can no longer be persuaded of the need to limit the influx of tourists or forest cutting – for them, this is jobs and income. Thus, the expansion of economic activity on Baikal will become self-sustaining.

It becomes obvious: the authors of the amendments hastily and largely secretly (as evidenced by night-time mailings of documents and morning committee meetings) pushed them through precisely in order to break a breach in the protection of Baikal once and for all. Having obtained this breach, they and their successors will be able to expand it as they please. The precedent itself has been created. Previously, any deviation (whether forest felling or hotel construction) could be stopped by referring to the federal law “On the Protection of Lake Baikal”, which prohibited this or that. Now there is no such absolute prohibition – there are conditions and procedures that can always be circumvented or revised.

CHRONOLOGY OF THE STRUGGLE.

Now briefly the entire chronology of events surrounding the bill on the destruction of Baikal.

In 2022, a group of deputies and senators submitted amendments to the law on the protection of Baikal to the State Duma. It was proposed to allow the cutting of “dead” trees and to change the designation of lands for the construction of roads, cemeteries, etc. At that time, the public work of the entire environmental community of Russia began!

After that it was possible to slow down the bill for more than a year.

But already in the autumn of 2023, lobbyists began actively working further on the bill. At the beginning of 2024, the lobbyists launched a large-scale media campaign in support of the amendments. The population was persuaded that without the new norms “people cannot even bury their dead” and “cannot stock up on firewood” because of the strict law. At the same time, according to media reports, local authorities deliberately made the lives of villagers more difficult: they began to prohibit residents from collecting deadwood and harvesting firewood for personal needs, forcing them to buy from commercial suppliers at extortionate prices. Artificial tension was created so that people themselves would want the law to be relaxed. At the same time, officials organized demonstrative support actions: budget workers were herded into rallies and “counter-petitions” were organized in support of clear-cutting. This dirty tactic – to apply administrative and informational pressure – showed how strong the interests behind the project were.

In April–May 2025, it became known that the Russian government had approved the bill and intended to promote it. At the same time, the entire scientific community of the country stood up for the protection of Baikal; academic scientists, together with environmental organizations, began to defend Baikal! In the Federation Council, the Commissioner for Human Rights, Valery Fadeyev, supported the demand to conduct a thorough examination of projects on Baikal and even proposed creating a special state project for its preservation. It seemed that science and society were more united than ever.

In July 2025, news came that they were trying to adopt the bill definitively. But society managed to slow this process down! Among other things, because activists made public the “inconvenient truth” that illegal logging and large-scale construction were already being carried out on Baikal in advance. A small “window” for manoeuvre appeared!

While environmentalists hoped for improvements, lobbyists secretly rewrote the project. On the night of 4 December 2025, the revised text was sent to members of the State Duma’s ecology committee. And in the morning of 5 December, the committee was unexpectedly convened – half of the members did not have time to come, but the officials present had no objections. The meeting went quickly: the protesting scientist (Vice President of the RAS Stepan Kalmykov) was in fact forced to withdraw his objections – he was persuaded that since the requirement for a RAS opinion was being introduced, there was nothing to worry about.

It is important to understand: SUDDENLY, in a single night, the scientists who had previously criticized the bill drastically changed their position. And this made it possible, on 9 December 2025, to finally and lightning-fast adopt the bill in two readings at once. There was OPEN PRESSURE on all deputies; let me quote the federal newspaper “Vedomosti”:

“During the discussion, Volodin repeatedly reminded deputies that the vote would not be anonymous and that it would be clear by name who voted ‘for’ and ‘against’. As a result, 323 deputies voted ‘for’ and 71 ‘against’. In total, the State Duma approved 40 amendments to the law on the protection of Baikal.”

That was the struggle! For our sacred Baikal.

Do I need to say in this huge material that the main lobbyists of the bill are directly connected to big business? They control logging and the tourism business, build highways and so on. It is through them that multi-billion budgets will flow!

WHAT CAN WE DO?

Those who defended Baikal were put under pressure, discredited, and mechanisms of blocking and restrictions in social networks were used against them. It is extremely difficult to defend Baikal when our resources are nowhere near commensurate with those available to the lobbying groups.

I believe that we can do the following: create a completely independent centre for continuous, daily monitoring of the situation around Baikal. Involve all journalists, organizations and grassroots initiatives in the work! Such a centre could exercise total public control over every action of the authorities and business around Baikal – from the allocation of land for construction to the condition of treatment facilities.

Implement modern tools: for example, a public interactive map of Baikal, where identified violations must be recorded – illegal logging, sewage discharge, illegal dumps, fires, seizure of the shoreline. This map should be accessible and updated in real time. On its basis, it will be possible to demand a response from supervisory authorities, attract the media and organize field trips to check the situation.

Create an anonymous reception office for residents of the Baikal region, where they can report and send coordinates of nature destruction. Record, process and act on each case locally!

But such a centre will be under pressure from the outset. At the same time, we have no funding, and it will be necessary to support it constantly, for years! This is difficult and long-term work.

Let us think about this. I will contact our Allies within the authorities; we will find out, consult. And if we find the strength within ourselves and find a financial solution, then we will try to continue the struggle for sacred Baikal! But we will have to defend it plot by plot.

In the meantime, I ask for your help: spread this material as widely as you possibly can. Let the whole country know that the heart of Siberia is under threat of destruction.

© PAVEL PASHKOV