Scientists: Animal extinction will accelerate severalfold.

I'm now actively studying new scientific research, trying to understand what scenario awaits ecosystems around the world. We already know that animals do not have enough food! Human exploitation of wildlife, as well as climatic anomalies — heat, drought, and the depletion of water tables — will inevitably lead to the accelerated extinction of living species on the planet.

And I would like to remind you that only about 27% of animals remain, while 73% of all living species on the planet, excluding humans, have been destroyed over the past 50 years.

I came across two recent scientific papers. I have just finished studying them! It actually took a long time simply to study them, write down the main findings, and master the material. I spent three days studying these two papers, and I have not yet connected them with other studies! I will work on this in the coming weeks. 

For now, I want to share the current data. 

The first paper is titled “Climate change scenarios predict intensification of drought exposure for terrestrial vertebrates in the conterminous United States.” It was published in November 2024, so the data are recent.

The scientists conducted the study in the United States, but it is also fully applicable to Russia! The ecosystems are the same, and the conditions are similar.

I will describe the main points that I wrote down for preparing my own materials and working on my books.

The study shows that drought is expected to increase in the coming years. According to scientists’ projections, an increase in annual and prolonged drought, including 36-month drought, will deal a devastating blow to 1,221 species of terrestrial vertebrate animals.

This needs to be clarified.

Annual drought assesses anomalous dry periods within a single year. By contrast, 36-month drought assesses long-term drought that lasts for three consecutive years!

The study was conducted in the United States, so it describes species specifically from the continental territory of North America.

BUT: the exact same situation, I repeat, will be observed here in Russia!

The study also provides a long-term assessment. By 2080 — this will fall to the lot of our children — annual drought exposure will increase by an average of 377%, while PROLONGED drought exposure will increase by 579% compared with the period from 1950 to 2005.

The southwestern United States will be most exposed to drought, because these regions have high biological diversity and, accordingly, a large number of species that will suffer from the lack of water and abnormal heat.

I am interested in the data on animals. Here the situation is as follows.

Reptiles will be most exposed to the increase in drought; scientists estimate an average increase of 671%. Next under threat are mammals at 574%, birds at 546%, and finally amphibians at 371%.

That is, all species without exception are facing a devastating blow! The increase in drought exposure for animals is an assessment of how much the area and frequency of drought to which animals will be exposed will increase. The percentage of territories where animals will be subjected to climatic anomalies will increase!

Put simply: the habitat range of animals will shrink by the indicated percentages! Survival conditions will deteriorate, which will lead to a sharp extinction of species in these territories. Moreover, extinction will be cascading, moving along the chain — affecting all interconnected species of animals and plants, respectively.

This is the kind of scientific study it is! I think it is important for everyone to study it carefully and use it in our struggle for Life.

Now to the second paper. It is titled “Biodiversity implications of recent land-use change driven by increases in agricultural commodity imports”, and it was published on September 20, 2024.

It interested me because it describes the blow to the animal world caused by global agriculture. The correlation with the previous study is direct, because abnormal heat, drought, and the depletion of water tables mean pressure not only on ecosystems, but also on human food security. More climatic anomalies mean a greater need for pesticides, land development, and the exploitation of natural resources.

I found this study in order to understand the scale of the real blow to ecosystems.

So, the main conclusions.

From 1995 to 2022, a colossal number of all species on the planet became threatened with complete extinction because of human “development” of land. This figure exceeds the established planetary boundary for biodiversity loss, which I wrote about earlier, by 50 times.

Moreover, 98% of the losses are concentrated in tropical regions, which are characterized by high biodiversity and a high concentration of human population.

What interested me in the scientists’ work was the connection between species extinction and international trade. And here is the point: 90% of all global biodiversity losses from land “development” are linked to INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN AGRI-FOOD COMMODITIES.

There are both consumers and exporters here.

For example, Latin America leads in agricultural exports, accounting for 37% of the global market. Meanwhile, the main consumer — the leader — is China at 26%. In second place is the United States at 16%, followed by the Middle East at 13% and Europe at 8%. After Latin America, Southeast Asia leads in exports at 28%, followed by Africa at 14%.

Agriculture is a key factor in the decline of the animal world on the planet. According to scientists, 72% of losses are linked to crop cultivation, and another 12 percent fall on livestock farming. At the same time, livestock farming is already losing its key role worldwide, since industrial giants — transnational corporations — are switching to stall-based keeping, and accordingly the need for global pastures is losing its relevance.

But industrial agriculture — literally the “burning out” of land for plantations — is increasing in scale. For example, in Indonesia, biodiversity losses are linked to palm oil production; vast forest areas are simply destroyed completely for the sake of increasing agricultural production volumes.

Now to the most interesting part.

Developed countries of the world HAVE REDUCED DOMESTIC BIODIVERSITY LOSSES, but only at the expense of production in tropical regions. In other words, states began to protect their own natural resources while increasing demands on poor countries to intensify the exploitation of their ecosystems. And it is precisely the ecosystems of tropical regions that are already on the verge of complete destruction.

As a result, a “double effect of ecocide” has emerged: pressure on nature has decreased in places such as China, Europe, and the United States, while increasing in countries where biologically rich regions are already on the brink of collapse.

Without urgent changes in global policy, without strengthening the protection of biological “hotspots” in tropical regions, we may witness an unprecedented collapse of ecosystems in the coming decades. These will be irreversible losses.

LET US SUM UP

I clearly connect both scientific studies with each other.

Let me try to explain.

The first study focuses on the catastrophic increase in droughts in the coming decades and their impact on vertebrate animals! Insects, which will also die out en masse, were not included in the calculations.

In the second study, scientists pointed to land-use change driven by agriculture and international trade, which has already become the main driver of the loss of natural territories.

We are now seeing an increase in the “development” of the last remaining areas of wild nature around the world! Forests and other ecosystems are being destroyed for plantations, while global desertification, soil degradation, and the depletion of all water tables are happening in parallel. This ACCELERATES droughts and makes ecosystems more vulnerable.

Now look at this.

The “industrial development” of ecosystems by humans is growing! Under conditions of increasing climatic anomalies, people begin to destroy ecosystems even more, seizing more and more territories. Because of desertification and soil degradation, people will begin retreating into the last refuges of wild nature, where animals are also dying out and suffering from anomalies.

As a result, species find themselves in an ECOLOGICAL DEAD END, where the recovery of populations becomes practically impossible PHYSICALLY. The only way to avoid this is through urgent international measures by all states of the world, which MUST unite and take every measure to prevent the destruction of ecosystems.

Here I see only one option — the implementation of our Concept of Territories of Full Ecological Tranquility (TFET). That is, transferring all preserved natural ecosystems into global conglomerates under special ecological and economic statuses.

Otherwise, we will destroy the Biosphere, and eventually our modern civilization will simply die out. The most terrible thing is that this planetary catastrophe will fall on our children and grandchildren!

We will have time to “grab and devour,” while our children will suffer, and they will somehow have to clean up all this incredible chaos left behind by their irresponsible fathers and mothers.

Urgent measures are needed.

Very, very urgent!

© PAVEL PASHKOV